What are the biggest risks facing Ireland and how well prepared are we to meet these challenges? If there were a sudden outbreak of infection caused by an antibiotic-resistant bacteria, how would the HSE respond? How are some of the largest private enterprises and critical entities in Ireland insulating themselves against future risks? These are just a few of the questions Prof Caroline McMullan and her colleagues in the Business & Society: Risk and Crisis Research Group, Research 4 Impact, (R4I), at DCU Business School are investigating.

Emerging risks are those not yet ready for full risk assessment but likely to emerge in the medium to long term. Under the R4I umbrella, a Scanning for Impact project was established to enhance the Irish National Risk Assessment (NRA) process. Prof McMullan and her team published a report, “Futureproof-IE”, on the design and rollout of a horizon scanning methodology for identifying emerging risks which could trigger a national-level emergency. Furthermore, it was agreed that the project's impact would be increased by sharing the outcomes with other EU Member States for consideration in their NRA processes and with the OECD High Level Risk Forum.

Systematic Review

The report’s recommendations were based on a systematic review of good practice from a wide variety of contexts. This analysis involved mapping how government departments and agencies, private sector organisations and other entities carry out horizon scanning by way of a series of mini case studies. These case studies included Dublin Bus, VHI Healthcare, Libraries NI, FIFA, as well as Dublin City University.

Building on further analysis of horizon scanning methodologies and a round of public consultation, the report goes on to set out a seven-step process for the identification and management of emerging risks that could trigger a national-level emergency. Finally, it provides an implementation guide designed to deliver an enhanced approach to strategic risk management oversight, which will be governed by the Government Task Force on Emergency Planning. The report was launched by the Tánaiste Micheál Martin and the EU Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarčič, in March 2024.

Previously, Prof McMullan and the R4I team worked on the FÓGRA project. In partnership with Met Éireann and funded under the IRC COALESCE Research Fund, this project used a theoretical framework based on good practice in Weather-related Risk Communication and Human Behaviour to present evidence-based recommendations for the development of Met Éireann’s public weather and climate services. Under this project, the team produced reports on Storm Emma, from a household preparedness perspective, as well as more general reports on weather and climate risk perception and the future of weather and climate services in Ireland.

Communicating in emergencies

Looking forward, the next phase of the wider R4I project is Communicating 4 Impact (C4I) during which safety messaging and public communication during an emergency will be analysed in order to make recommendations for good practice at a national and European level. Particular emphasis will be given to communicating in the border region on the island of Ireland.

Prof McMullan is also collaborating with the SFI Insight Centre for Data Analytics and Smart DCU on a project examining the use of digital twin technology in preparing for and responding to emergency situations. The project will examine how this technology can mitigate risk and, in real-time, coordinate search and rescue operations in the built environment. It will also examine how digital twins may be used to enhance university campus risk management and crisis management.

Training emergency leaders

Since her appointment to DCU, Prof McMullan led the development of the MSc in Emergency Management at DCU,  the first programme of its kind on the island of Ireland. In light of this experience, Caroline currently leads the DCU team working on the EUMA project.  EUMA's main goal is to create a European network of institutions offering specialised postgraduate Master's degree programmes in disaster, risk and crisis management and to design a pan-EU master's in disaster management.

Professor McMullan was the architect of the methodology underpinning the first Irish NRA in 2012 and has been a member of the NRA project team in the Office of Emergency Planning for all four NRA processes.