The sustainability of senior elite sport is reliant on the development of junior athletes towards future performance. To this end, significant time, finances and human resources are invested by sport organisations into athlete development. However, resources are necessarily limited, raising the question: how can we best make efficient and effective use of these limited resources? In this sense, it is important to evaluate sport policies which impact resource allocation.
Through a longitudinal collaboration between DCU, Insight Centre for Data Analytics, and Premiership Rugby, ‘The Player Development Project’ aims to investigate factors contributing to the development of Premiership players, with a view to inform the resourcing, structure, and design of the English rugby union talent system.
Understanding the impact of ‘high-potential’ status
In male English rugby union, regional academies oversee the development of players towards the Premiership. Within these academies, players perceived to be the most likely to become a senior professional player are awarded ‘high-potential’ status. This status distinguishes them from their peers, with governing policy mandating these players receive increased resourcing to support their development - often above and beyond what is typically offered to their peers.
Players may be considered high-potential ‘early’ whilst in the junior academy (U16-U18), or ‘late’ upon selection into the senior academy (U19-U24). Whilst those considered high-potential early will have benefited from this extra resource and elevated status in the junior academy, those recognised late will not have received the same level of support in their formative years. As such, there is a need to understand if and when a player receives high-potential status impacts progression to senior elite rugby union.
This initial study aimed to investigate the progression of academy players into the English Premiership. Using the data of 3127 academy players from all 14 regional academies over a ten year period, academy players were split into groups based upon if/when they received ‘high-potential’ status – early, late, or not at all. Each group’s progression to the Premiership were compared using conversion rates, odds ratios, and regression analysis. The effectiveness and efficiency of the 14 academies were also considered, comparing the number and proportion of their high-potential players to make a Premiership debut.
Key findings
Overall, players whose academy perceived them to be ‘high-potential’ early, and who subsequently received additional resource, were six times more likely to become a Premiership player. For every year younger a player was first considered ‘high-potential’ and resourced increased their odds 2.6 times. Of the sample, these players accounted for 68% of Premiership debuts. These findings indicate that a practitioner’s perception of an athlete’s potential may influence their progression.
However, when limiting the analysis to players who progressed to the senior academy, players considered to be high-potential late were marginally more likely to achieve a Premiership appearance than those considered high-potential early. These results indicate that in its current format, the English rugby union talent system provides opportunities for players identified early and late. These findings also raise important questions as to how (un)affording status may differently impact a junior player’s development.
Comparisons between the 14 academies showcased a varied landscape. Substantial differences were observed between the proportion of high-potential players to achieve a Premiership appearance between the academies (15-45%). This suggests differences in how each academy identifies and supports their high-potential players. Otherwise, results indicated that some academies were better able to develop Premiership players than others, and highlights the need to further understand factors affecting an academy's ability to develop Premiership players.
Implications for practice
This first study of ‘The Player Development Project’ highlights important considerations for player development policy and practice in English rugby union, as well as for wider practice.
English rugby union is commonly referred to as a ‘late selection sport’, with this conceptualisation shaping the norms of the talent system, and sometimes means investment in individual players is delayed until later in the junior academy. The results of this study strongly challenge this notion; players identified as high potential early, and subsequently resourced, had the greatest odds of becoming a Premiership player, with odds increasing the younger they were recognised. However, the relatively late selection policies of the talent system meant that players who were not considered high-potential early were still given opportunity to develop. Should early selection policies be utilised alone, these players may not have progressed. Our findings suggest providing enhanced support for those player’s showing potential early may be beneficial, but also suggests that final selection should be deferred for as long as possible.
This study has highlighted significant differences between the academies, and showcases that blanket, system-wide sport policies may have different outcomes in different contexts. In upcoming research, we aim to investigate the differences between the academies to understand constraints to rugby union player development in England.
Full Text
Shelley, A., Taylor, J., MacNamara, Á., Sajwan, V., Scriney, M., McCarthy, N., Jones, B., & Behan, S. (2025). The impact of high-potential status on progression and conversion within a male rugby union talent system. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2025.2458357
