Coming to terms with Donald Trump and the 2020 Presidential Campaign
Coming to Terms with Donald Trump and the 2020 Presidential Campaign was the focus of a hugely engaging “fireside chat” between Prof Gary Murphy, DCU School of Law & Government and Prof Bob Schmuhl, University of Notre Dame and Adjunct Prof at DCU earlier this month.
A snapshot of some of the commentary from Prof Schmuhl is below while you can also listen to the full audio here
The odds usually favour the incumbent; however 2020 is very different
Incumbents generally win. Since 1900 there have been 20 Presidential elections involving incumbents and 15 times they have won. In March of this year, Trump was riding high on a strong economy and the Democrats were in disarray. However, now the incumbent is on the backfoot and has not been leading in a national poll for a very long time.
The impact of Covid-19 on the election race
Originally when the election started Trump wanted it to be a simple choice between him and Joe Biden. However, the pandemic has raged and we are now at the point of *225,000 Americans dying and it is no longer a choice but a referendum on Trump’s leadership or lack thereof during this particular crisis.
Evaluating the US Presidency
One should view it as a long four year roller coaster ride. During the first couple of years it focussed on the Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign and that led to a special counsel; once that was over, it immediately moved to the Ukraine situation where the President was saying he wanted to hold off military aid until he received some negative information about Joe Biden. That of course led to his impeachment; he was acquitted in the Senate this year but what followed was the outbreak of a global pandemic.
“Threading the needle” and appealing to his base
In 2016, in three specific states he was able to “thread the needle”- Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and from that moment on he catered to his base. We have never seen anything like it where a President keeps going back to his base.
What of Joe Biden?
Regarded as a safe pair of hands. The Democrats made a decision, not in the individual states, but more so collectively, that they wanted to select someone that might win. There is another factor to this campaign, which might not have been exploited or explained and that is that there are a number of Republicans who have announced they are voting for Joe Biden.
Trump and coronavirus
His supporters see it as a badge of courage, as a sign of his strength and they are willing to get in fights and disputes with people around the approach to coronavirus.
Amy Coney Barrett
Trump has delivered “originalists” to the Supreme Court, making strong on his 2016 promise.
The Swing states
Joe Biden has held a strong national lead over a consistent period of time. The question is whether Donald J Trump can thread the needle twice and find a way to win in the three or four states which would turn it his way.
Early voting and what it tells us?
Early voting is up and up significantly more than any other election in the United States. There are more Democrats than Republicans involved in early voting and one of the reasons is that Trump has been telling people to go in person and go that day. However, the pandemic is driving people to the polls, plus what is going on with the US Postal Service is making people go there earlier. When we see early voting we see millions of people who do not want their vote suppressed.
Last minute surprises for the election?
Trump keeps pushing the Justice Department to take action on Joe Biden. It is not out of the realm of possibility that there could be something that could occur around that in the last few days similar to Hilary Clinton and her emails.
ABOUT:
Prof Robert (Bob) Schmuhl is the Walter H. Annenberg-Edmund P. Joyce Professor Emeritus of American Studies and Journalism at the University of Notre Dame. He is a renowned expert on the American Presidency on both sides of the Atlantic. He is the author or editor of over a dozen books, including “Statecraft and Stagecraft: American Political Life in the Age of Personality,” which describes the rise of the personality through the media in contemporary politics, and “Wounded Titans: American Presidents and the Perils of Power.” In 2016, his historical study, “Ireland’s Exiled Children: America and the Easter Rising,” was published by Oxford University Press. His latest book "The Glory and the Burden: The American Presidency from FDR to Trump" was published to much acclaim by the University of Notre Dame Press in 2019. Prof. Schmuhl is a regular contributor about American politics and government on RTE radio and writes a widely read column for the Irish Independent. He is currently an adjunct professor in the School of Law and Government at Dublin City University.