Back in July, the cordon sanitaire largely held in place in the European Parliament when the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), liberal Renew and the Green Party, excluded the far-right and eurosceptic Patriots and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) groups from the new EP’s Bureau. However, some of the ECR’s representatives have been assigned to crucial Parliaments roles, showing that the biggest right-wing group can be accepted as a partner by the consolidated EU majority. Especially the EPP’s willingness to open the doors to the conservatives has disrupted the traditional order, pushing it to the right with the creation of the new “Venezuela majority”.

The new power balance of this alternative coalition was reflected in the nominations of the Commissioners-designate for von der Leyen-bis, most notably her acceptance of the Italian politician Raffaele Fitto as Executive Vice-President of the Commission for Cohesion and Reforms, nominated by Prime Minister Meloni. This nomination opened a Pandora's box of internal tensions within the (not anymore) consolidated “Ursula majority”. 

This political favour to Meloni (Head of the ECR group) seemed to be excessive, considering that her party ‘Fratelli d’Italia’ did not vote in favour of von der Leyen’s re-election and that it would be the first time in history that a far-right exponent would be put in charge of a powerful role in the College.

Fitto will oversee some of the most important dossiers along with Valdis Dombrovskis, whose designation appears to be a way to counterbalance and surveil the far-right commissioner’s work. This coupled with Fitto's moderate and cooperative tone during his confirmation hearing on 12 November before the MEPs seemed intended to mollify the sentiments of the left. In reality, Fitto’s appointment just upset the main left-wing parties. Indeed, S&D and Renew declared their intention not to vote in support of the new Commission and the Greens followed suit.

This political battle escalated when the EPP threatened to withhold support for the S&D commissioner-designate of Spain, Teresa Ribera in response to the left’s refusal to support Fitto and the controversial Hungarian candidate nominated by Orbán.

This swinging of the EPP between left and right was condemned as very dangerous by the left-wing groups and the unclear position of the centrist party has lately affected other policy initiatives. In fact on 14 November, as the EU faced dueling veto threats over new Commissioners, the Parliament approved the postponement and amendment of some provisions of the “deforestation law”. This regulation, part of the Green Deal, imposes stringent rules for specific raw materials imported into the Union. The EPP alongside the right-wing parties voted in favour of these amendments aimed to create less strict requirements, weakening the Green Deal goals and completely breaking the cordon sanitaire. 

This event exacerbated the political tensions between the right and left-wing groups within the Union, threatening to delay the start of the new European Commission on 1 December.

Multiple political figures intervened with public speeches in order to unblock the impasse including the Commission President von der Leyen herself, the EP President Roberta Metsola and the President of the Italian Republic. President Mattarella had a meeting with Fitto to encourage and promote deeper collaboration between the political groups at both national and supranational levels.

After days of hard work, mediation and a lot of speculation on possible future scenarios, on the evening of the 20th of November, the EPP, S&D and Renew groups signed an agreement expressing their commitment to collaborate over the next five years and to accept the pending commissioner nominees. This green light from Strasbourg withdrew the threatened vetoes and unblocked the deadlock that had slowed down and upended the stability of the Union in the past few weeks.

Finally, on the morning of the 27 November, during the Strasbourg Plenary, the MEPs approved Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission for her second term. The modest support she received is very noticeable: 370 votes in favour, 282 against and 36 abstentions. This 54% share of positive votes is the lowest ever registered for a new Commission.

As a consequence of her flirting with the right groups, Von der Leyen lost the support of many of the S&Ds, Greens and Liberals Renew with many “no” and abstensions. Instead, she gained the support of many in the ECR, even though they had opposed her second mandate in summer. This is the first time ever that a Commission lost support in the timeframe between the President investiture and the Parliament confirmation vote.

In her first speech, President Ursula von der Leyen presented the highlights of the next five-year Commission’s programme and declared that she “will always work from the center”. Those words confirmed once again the willingness to work with a pro-European majority, but the results of the confirmation votes are very clear, showing that the new Commission term kicks off with the most divided and diverse majority ever.

Von der Leyen seemed to have responded to the rise of the right in Europe with dialogue and mediation. Her very criticised flirtation with the right groups could be seen as a necessary step to reinforce support, while keeping the rise of the radical right under control. In fact, the nomination of the moderate political figure of Fitto could be read as a skillful balancing act in order to keep the centrist majority as strong as possible without ignoring the rise of the conservatives.  

Certainly, in light of the current critical international political situation (due to Trump’s re-election and the war in Ukraine), this decision to open the doors to the ECR, generates many doubts about the stability of the College. If we also consider how quickly internal tensions were “solved” by signing the agreement between the main majority groups, the future of this Commission seems pretty uncertain.

Beyond factual analysis and speculation, our focus should shift to evaluating the work of the new Commission in practice, hoping there will be cooperation towards the creation of a stronger and more united European Union.