Dr. Niels Kirst, Assistant Professor of European Law at Dublin City University

The recent German federal elections have brought a major political shift, marking a turning point in the country’s governance. With voter turnout exceeding 82%—the highest since German Reunification—this election underscored strong political engagement but also revealed deep divisions within the electorate. Particularly striking was the voting behaviour of younger generations, who disproportionately supported the political extremes, with significant gains for both the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) with 20,8% of the vote and the far-left Die Linke with 8,8% of the vote. This trend signals a growing polarization that challenges Germany’s traditionally centrist-driven democracy.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the dominant political force, securing 28,5% of the vote and 208 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. This result positions the CDU party leader Friedrich Merz as Germany’s next chancellor, marking a return to conservative leadership after the centre-left government of Olaf Scholz. The Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a dramatic defeat, in fact their worst in history with only 16,4% of the vote, losing nearly half of their previous parliamentary representation, while the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) did not manage to cross the five-percent threshold to enter the Bundestag.

Merz, known for his “conservative” and economically liberal stance, represents a shift away from the centrist, pragmatic approach associated with the previous CDU chancellor Angela Merkel. His leadership is expected to bring greater clarity to Germany’s domestic and European policies, particularly in areas such as defence, economic reform, and migration. Immediately after the election, Merz sent a strong signal to the United States, emphasizing that if the Trump II administration continues its current course, the European Union (EU) must act with greater autonomy.  Here, he could find common ground with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has argued for years in favour of more European strategic autonomy. Merz’s statements on election night underscore growing concerns in Berlin about Europe’s reliance on transatlantic security arrangements and suggests that Germany may take a more assertive role in shaping European strategic autonomy.

Despite the CDU/CSU’s electoral success, forming a stable governing coalition will be a challenge. Without an outright majority, Merz must seek one or two coalition partners across the political spectrum. The only viable options are the Social Democrats and/or the Greens, though deep ideological differences persist between these parties and the CDU/CSU. It is widely expected that Merz will form a so-called “grand coalition” with the SPD. Policy negotiations will be particularly complex in key areas such as defence, where the constitutional debt brake might need to be set aside, and migration, where a compromise for reform with the SPD needs to be found. Economic policy will also take centre stage, as Germany’s challenges are structural rather than cyclical, requiring deep reform (transforming the status quo cheap energy/export driven business model) and long-term adjustments to maintain competitiveness.

One of the most significant and concerning developments in this election was the further rise – in fact the doubling of vote share – of the far-right AfD, which secured the position of the second-strongest party and the opposition leader. The AfD’s deeply anti-European stance, including its explicit calls to dismantle the EU, presents a serious challenge not only for Germany but for the stability of the European project as a whole. The party’s strong performance among young voters underscores the growing appeal of nationalist rhetoric and radical solutions for disenchanted youth. This raises concerns about the long-term trajectory of Germany’s role in Europe. Merz’s strong pro-European stance suggests that his government will actively counter these tendencies and reinforce Germany’s commitment to European integration. However, managing domestic polarization while maintaining a stable European course will be a defining challenge of his chancellorship.

When it comes to cooperation with Brussels, Merz has cultivated a strong working relationship with European Commission (Commission) President Ursula von der Leyen (they are from the same party and know each other well). They have shared strategic priorities include enhancing competitiveness, bolstering defence capabilities, and addressing migration and border protection. Notably, Merz has signalled a shift towards greater European autonomy in defence matters, expressing concerns over external (these days, U.S.) influences on European affairs. This stance suggests a potential re-evaluation of Germany’s traditional reliance on transatlantic alliances, aiming to elevate the EU’s role in ensuring regional security. In this way, the outcome of Germany’s federal elections heralds a new chapter in the nation’s political narrative. Under Merz’s leadership, Germany is poised to navigate complex domestic challenges (the rise of the far-right) and redefine its position within the European and global arenas. The forthcoming coalition negotiations between CDU/CSU and SPD will be pivotal for the policy outlook. Merz set the ambitious target to conclude the coalition talks before Easter (mid-April).

In conclusion, the 2025 German federal snap elections have set the stage for a new political era in Germany – a reorientation to more conservative policies, whether it be on migration, defence, or the economy. Although, this means still a strong commitment to the EU, as the CDU/CSU sees itself as the European party of Germany since the first German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was one of the EU’s founding fathers. The ability of Merz’s leadership will shape not only Germany’s domestic policies but also its position in the EU and the broader international arena. His commitment to greater European autonomy, his close ties with Commission President von der Leyen, and his focus on economic competitiveness, security, and migration policy signal a shift in both German and European politics. As Germany navigates coalition negotiations and strategic policy decisions, the broader question remains whether this government can counteract growing extremism, restore economic confidence, and strengthen European unity in a time of huge geopolitical uncertainty due to the ambivalent policies of the Trump II Administration. The coming weeks and months will provide the first indications of the direction Germany and Europe will take.