Ian Cooper (DCU Brexit Institute)

On Sunday, the Liberal Party of Canada chose Mark Carney as their new leader, who will replace Justin Trudeau to become prime minister on Friday. As a former central bank governor in Canada and the UK, Carney was chosen as the candidate with the skill and experience to confront Donald Trump, who has started a trade war that could cripple the Canadian economy. 

Since the US election, Canada has seen its closest neighbour transform from a dependable and predictable ally into an irrational and capricious bully. Trump has threatened, paused, threatened again, imposed, and then partially suspended, very high 25% tariffs on Canadian goods – with the promise of more to come. With every turn of the screw, the pretext changes and new demands are made. At first it was about the (miniscule) flow of fentanyl and migrants at the border; now it is about access to Canada’s water, dairy markets, banking sector, and whatever else happens to pop into the president’s head. 

Trump is toying with Canada. Tariffs themselves are a normal, legal tool of economic statecraft. What is definitely not normal is to use tariffs as part of a campaign of economic coercion to annex your neighbour. As Trump said to “Governor Trudeau”, the tariffs will disappear when Canada becomes America’s 51st state. 

Canadians may feel alone in this fight. Canada’s response has largely been focused inward – on becoming more self-reliant, buying Canadian products and freeing up trade within the country. However, there is another option – to look outward and make common cause with other countries that also oppose the Trump agenda. Canada has other friends and allies besides the US. It should look to join forces with the European Union (EU), a powerful trading bloc of 27 states with which it has common interests and shared values. 

In common with the member states of the EU, Canada stands for a tradition of liberal internationalism in foreign affairs, defending the rules-based international order that has governed the world since 1945. The foundation of this order is the principle of sovereignty, that states interact on a basis of equality and mutual respect for one another’s territorial integrity. It is this order, which was of course built under US leadership, that Trump is now tearing down – both in North America, by threatening his neighbours, and in Europe, by siding with the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine War. 

Trump’s threat to make Canada the “51st state” (and let’s be clear, it’s a threat, not a joke) is revealing of his world view. For him, the US cannot tolerate living with a smaller neighbour in a state of peaceful coexistence on the basis of sovereign equality. The neighbour must be dominated and, if possible, annexed. This is Manifest Destiny, the 19th century doctrine that the US territory should expand to encompass the whole of the North American continent. 

Trump has made a similar threat (again, not a joke) to take over Greenland, a Danish territory which shares a land border with Canada (on Hans Island, in the High Arctic). After receiving an alarmingly aggressive phone call from Trump about Greenland, what did the Danish prime minister do? She immediately made a rapid round of visits to Berlin, Paris, and Brussels, where she received a show of diplomatic support from other European leaders. This illustrates the strong bond among European allies, who are in the habit of constantly meeting and working together within the EU institutions.

In fact, we had a glimpse last week of what broader Canada-Europe cooperation could look like when Justin Trudeau flew to a summit of European leaders in London. They gathered to show their support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy after he was publicly ambushed by Trump and JD Vance in the Oval Office. Canada joined European leaders in support of a just peace process that does not exclude Ukraine or reward Russian aggression. In the group photo of European leaders, it was fitting to see the Canadian prime minister and the national flag form part of the tableau. 

In the current geopolitical upheaval, Canada and the EU should seek out ways to deepen their existing political and economic cooperation. Canada already has a free trade agreement with the EU (CETA). Canada is an observer state in the Council of Europe. Most member states of the EU are also members of the NATO alliance, of which Canada is a founding member. In response to the growing Russian threat and the American retreat from Europe, the EU is rapidly building up its own defence cooperation, with a proposed 800 billion euro package (REARM Europe). On Sunday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen spoke about teaming up with Canada (along with the UK and Norway) as a “like-minded country” in this endeavour. 

Yet the current moment prompts an even more audacious question. Could Canada actually join the EU as a full member state? Thanks to the predatory behaviour of Donald Trump, this has very quickly turned this from a mere thought experiment (put forward by the Economist’s Charlemagne) into a serious political possibility. “In the face of Trump’s madness, the EU stands with Canada!” Guy Verhofstadt, a European federalist politician wrote, adding that there is “no reason EU membership should be off the table.” European Movement International is considering setting up a Canadian branch. 

A recent poll has shown that Canadians are surprisingly open to the idea, with nearly half approving in principle (46% in support, 29% opposed, and 25% don’t know/unsure). Strongest support is among young Canadians (age 18-29). Young people would be most likely to take advantage of the EU’s free movement policy – the automatic right to live and work anywhere in the EU, be it Paris, Rome, Prague, or Dublin. 

For the record, it should be stated clearly that it is indeed possible for Canada to join the EU. There is a process, which usually involves a long and complex negotiation between the candidate state and the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU. But it can be done, if there is sufficient political will on both sides. 

But wouldn’t Canada be disqualified by virtue of geography? When a Commission spokesperson was asked this question on Wednesday, she did not answer directly but referred to the criteria in the EU Treaty. This is a reference to Article 49, which states that “any European state” that respects the EU’s fundamental values can apply to become a member. 

But in fact, the geographical definition of “Europe” is elastic. It includes EU member states that are culturally European even though they are geographically closer to West Asia (Cyprus) and North Africa (Malta). Canada shares a land border with the territory of one EU member state (Greenland, part of Denmark) and a close sea border with another (St Pierre et Miquelon, a French territory off the coast of Newfoundland). Moreover, the treaty definition of “Europe” is as much a civic as a geographic concept, associated with fundamental values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law, which Canada abundantly shares. 

Ultimately, it is a political question whether Canada qualifies as “European” and is thus eligible for EU membership. This would be decided by the member states of the EU. That decision ought to be swayed by the enormous advantages to be gained for both sides from such a merger, in both economic and political terms. We are witnessing a profound realignment in global affairs. Given the stakes of the current moment, when the liberal international order is being shaken to its foundations, what had seemed politically unthinkable just a few weeks ago may suddenly become possible. 

Mark Carney’s experience on both sides of the Atlantic makes him well-placed to lead a rapprochement between Canada and the EU. When he was governor of the Bank of England, he warned presciently about the economic damage that would come from Brexit (the decision of the UK to leave the EU, which most British voters now realize was a mistake). However, he must first face off against the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in a federal election, which is likely to be called in a matter of weeks, or even days. Before Trudeau’s resignation, the Conservatives were far ahead in the polls, but lately the Liberals have been catching up, largely thanks to Trump’s threats. There has been a remarkable surge in Canadian patriotism and Poilievre’s divisive, Trump-style politics – Liberals deride him as “maple syrup MAGA” – has been a turn-off for many voters in these times. Certainly, the election results will be key in determining the future of Canada-EU relations: the poll cited above found that Liberal voters are much more likely than Conservatives to favour Canada joining the EU.

In the coming campaign, Canadian voters should know the full range of options when they are contemplating the future of their country. Canada does not need to choose between splendid isolation and being swallowed up as the 51st state. There is a third option. Canada could join the European Union.